Disclaimer: This author has no business relation with Infonetics. We do admire the way they do primary market research. Infonetics Chief Analyst Michael Howard recently spoke at an IEEE ComSocSCV event and has just become an IEEE member.
Mobile broadband service revenue to more than double by 2014
Infonetics Research (http://twitter.com/infonetics) today released excerpts from its Mobile Services and Subscribers: Voice, SMS/MMS, and Broadband market size and forecast report, published in June.
"Total mobile monthly ARPUs are still trending down across the board, despite fast rising mobile broadband revenue that partly offsets the decline of voice and SMS, which have been affected by new tariff regulation in the middle of a global recession, prompting many subscribers to shift to prepaid accounts. Moving forward, a two-race game is developing: how to keep up with the onslaught of low ARPU prepaid customers, and how fast can messaging and mobile app downloads replace phone calls as the major revenue drivers?" notes Stéphane Téral, Infonetics Research's principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.
- Revenue collected by service providers for cellular services totaled $675 billion in 2009, and is expected to top $829 billion by 2014
- Mobile broadband service revenue jumped 36% in 2009
- Between 2010 and 2014, mobile broadband revenue will more than double
- The number of mobile broadband subscribers is expected to reach 1.8 billion worldwide by 2014, or 28% of total mobile subscribers
- The number of LTE subscribers is forecast to reach 153 million by 2014, mostly in Asia Pacific and EMEA
- Due in large part to the high concentration of mobile operators in developed markets in Western Europe with good HSPA coverage, the EMEA region leads the mobile broadband race, having outpaced early 3G adopters such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea
- In emerging Asian economies such as China and India, data revenue, including SMS and mobile broadband, is already having a positive impact on total ARPU, more than offsetting the rapid decline of voice ARPU that's occurring despite double-digit percentage annual increases in voice traffic
- By 2014, W-CDMA/HSPA revenue will almost be 7 times that of CDMA2000 1xEV-DO revenue, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks
Infonetics' biannual Mobile Services and Subscribers report provides in-depth analysis and worldwide and regional market size and forecasts through 2014 for mobile services (voice, SMS/MMS, and mobile broadband [W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, LTE]) and subscribers (voice [prepaid and postpaid] and mobile broadband [W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, LTE, Phone-based and PC-based]).
Infonetics Research (http://twitter.com/infonetics) released excerpts from its first quarter (1Q10) 2G/3G and LTE Mobile Broadband Devices and Subscribers report, published in June, which tracks W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, and LTE mobile broadband cards, devices, routers, and netbooks.
"Embedded mobile devices now account for a third of the mobile broadband devices market; the trend for mobile broadband connectivity embedded within consumer devices will continue apace, moving beyond PC-based devices to multiple new form factors," notes Richard Webb, Infonetics Research's directing analyst for mobile devices.
- Revenue from mobile broadband cards (standard PC cards and embedded cards) grew 6% in 1Q09 over 4Q09 to $1.55 billion worldwide
- Strong growth is expected in mobile broadband card revenue and unit shipments in 2010, driven in large part by increasing adoption of HSPA (High Speed Packet Access)
- LTE-based mobile broadband embedded PC card sales are forecast to top US$3.8 billion in 2014
- Shipments of mobile routers jumped 59% in 1Q10 over 4Q09 as mobile operators see them as a means of offloading mobile data traffic onto WiFi and are actively promoting them
- While this market is somewhat uncertain, it may continue to grow now that that these mobile (or 'hotspot') routers are smaller and more easily portable for vacations, work-related travel, in-vehicles, etc., appealing to a broader audience
- Huawei, Sony Ericsson and ZTE are the top 3 mobile broadband card revenue market share leaders in 1Q10
- The number of mobile broadband subscribers surpassed DSL subscribers for the first time in 2009, and is forecast by Infonetics Research to grow to 1.8 billion worldwide in 2014
Infonetics' 2G/3G and LTE Mobile Broadband Devices and Subscribers report provides worldwide and regional market size, vendor market share, analysis, and forecasts through 2014 for W-CDMA/HSPA, CDMA2000/EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, and Long Term Evolution (LTE) mobile broadband PC cards, embedded mobile broadband cards by device (PC, netbook, handheld mobile Internet device), and phone- and PC-based mobile broadband subscribers. The report also tracks mobile broadband routers and netbooks by operating system (Windows, Mac, Linux, other).
AW Comment: We are not at all surprised by these findings. Worldwide, HSPA is and will continue to be the most pervasive mobile broadband technology, way ahead of EVDO Rev xyz or Mobile WiMAX. The reason is its the natural evolution from 2G GSM based cellular networks.